Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
